Deval Patrick (D) 42%
Charles Baker (R) 29%
Timothy Cahill (I) 14%
Jill Stein (G) 8%
Undecided 7%
Alot of factors are at play here, and I suspect Governor Patrick is still riding the Aquapocalypse bump, but that should have petered out a little by now. I'm most surprised that the Undecideds are low. That's low, right? The election is still six months away.
Johnson notes, "The poll also showed Cahill, the state's treasurer, dropping after the Republican Governors Association targeted him with a $1 million negative advertising campaign."
But what's interesting is that the votes seem to go to Patrick, who is for now staying above negative ads. I guess hypocritical outrage works. It's more that the ad buy was juxtaposed with Aquapocalypse, so while his opponents* were getting dirty, Patrick was displaying leadership.
"Tim Cahill's decline has been a clear net positive for Gov. Patrick," said David Paleologos, director of the Suffolk University Political Research Center. "Patrick is the better-known alternative, is trusted the most and is perceived to have run the best campaign thus far. More than 60 percent of voters still have no opinion of Charlie Baker or have never heard of him, so he hasn't given voters a reason to choose him."And the worst part is that this poll was conducted this past weekend, after Baker's much-vaunted Had Enough? tour. He's still largely unknown, which means we get to go through another kickoff, and probably another slogan.
I'm also impressed that Stein is gathering such support this early on. She's almost (I said ALMOST) neck and neck with the independent candidate, and Cahill is portrayed as a more serious threat.
_________________________________________________________
* I understand that technically the Republican Governors' Association bought the ads, but I think the poll suggests that it's too fine a distinction for voters.[back to text]
0 comments:
Post a Comment