Brown and the Supremes

Mark Arsenault and Susan Milligan try to pin down how our wildcard Senator, Scott Brown, will vote on the nomination of Elena Kagan to the Supreme Court.  To wit:

Kagan’s solid performance during committee hearings last week all but assures her confirmation by a comfortable margin, so Brown is not in a position to affect the outcome. But analysts say the political stakes are high for Brown personally.

If he supports her, Brown risks angering conservative activists across the country, an important source of campaign contributions. If he opposes such a highly accomplished woman with strong Massachusetts ties, the state’s independents, particularly women, may question his assertion that being a “Scott Brown Republican’’ does not automatically mean toeing the GOP line.

The Massachusetts Liberal thinks he knows the answer:

But if I were a betting man, I would probably follow where the campaign contributions lead me -- particularly since Kagan is not likely to be filibustered and has enough Democratic support that voting the political line could generate Brown more cash.

What do you think? Please feel free to comment!